This lecture is mainly based the following textbooks:
Study review and practice: I strongly recommend using Prof. Henrique Castro (FGV-EAESP) materials. Below you can find the links to the corresponding exercises related to this lecture:
\(\rightarrow\) For coding replications, whenever applicable, please follow this page or hover on the specific slides with coding chunks.
When corporations raise funds from outside investors, they must choose which type of security to issue. The most common choices are financing through equity alone and financing through a combination of debt and equity
As a result, the Capital Structure decision of a firm is the relative proportion of debt, equity, and other securities that a firm has outstanding constitute its capital
Financial Managers are often faced with the challenge of choosing the proportions of debt and equity of the firm
When it comes to Capital Structue, a central question is: do capital structure decisions affect firm value?
Put another way, is there an optimal Capital Structure that maximizes the value of a firm?
\(\rightarrow\) As we’ll see throughout this lecture, under some conditions, the value of a firm is not affected by its capital structure decisions!
Date 0 (investment) | Date 1 (strong economy) | Date 1 (Weak economy) |
---|---|---|
-$800 | +$1,400 | +$900 |
\[ \small V = \frac{\frac{1}{2} \times 1400 + \frac{1}{2} \times 900 }{(1+15\%)} = \dfrac{1,150}{(1+15\%)}=1000 \]
Say that you decide to fund this project using \(\small100\%\) equity in your Capital Structure
The firm value today is \(\small\$1,000\). If the firm wants to finance the project 100% through equity, it could raise this amount selling equity to outside investors. In this case, the firm is called unlevered equity
From the perspective of an equity investor, we have:
Date 0 (investment) | Date 1 (Strong economy) | Date 1 (Weak economy) |
---|---|---|
-$1,000 | +$1,400 | +$900 |
Return | +40% | -10% |
\(\rightarrow\) Because the risk of unlevered equity equals the risk of the project, shareholders are earning an equivalent return for the risk they are taking
What happens to the value of a firm when we move towards a mixed Capital Structure that contains both Equity and Debt? In this situation, the firm is called levered equity
To see that in action, assume that the firm issues \(\small \$500\) of debt and \(\small\$500\) of equity, with the cost of debt being \(\small 5\%\). Will the value of the firm and the project’s NPV change?
The short answers is: no, the firm value will not change!
\[ \small D_1= D_0\times(1+5\%)=500\times 1.05=\$525 \]
Source | Date 0 (investment) | Date 1 (strong economy) | Date 1 (Weak economy) |
---|---|---|---|
Debt (D) | 500 | 525 | 525 |
Equity (E) | ? | 875 | 375 |
Firm (V) | 1,000 | 1,400 | 900 |
Source | \(T_0\) | \(T_1\) (strong) | \(T_1\) (Weak) | \(R_{\text{Strong}}\) | \(R_{\text{Weak}}\) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt | 500 | 525 | 525 | 5% | 5% |
Equity | 500 | 875 | 375 | 75% | -25% |
Value | 1,000 | 1,400 | 900 | 40% | -10% |
Source | Return sensitivity | Risk premium |
---|---|---|
Debt | 5% - 5% = 0% | 5% - 5% = 0% |
Unlevered Equity | 40% - (-10%) = 50% | 15% - 5% = 10% |
Levered Equity | 75% - (-25%) = 100% | 25% - 5% = 20% |
\(\rightarrow\) Considering both sources of capital together, the firm’s average cost of capital with leverage is the same as for the unlevered firm!
Modigliani and Miller argued that with perfect capital markets, the total value of a firm should not depend on its capital structure
They reasoned that the firm’s total cash flows still equal the cash flows of the project and, therefore, have the same present value!
Using the same values as before, suppose the firm borrows \(\small\$700\) when financing the project. According to Modigliani and Miller, what should the value of the equity be? What is the expected return?
Because the value of the firm’s total cash flows is still \(\small\$1,000\), if the firm borrows \(\small\$700\), its equity will be worth \(\small\$300\). The firm will owe \(\small \$700 \times 1.05 = \$735\) in one year to debtholders:
The expected return is then:
\[ \small \frac{1}{2} \times 121.67\% + \frac{1}{2} \times -45\% = 38.33\% \]
Source | \(R_\text{Strong}\) | \(R_\text{Weak}\) | Syst. risk | Risk premium |
---|---|---|---|---|
Debt | 5% | 5% | 5% - 5% = 0% | 5% - 5% = 0% |
Equity | 122% | -45% | 122% - (-45%) = 167% | 38% - 5% = 33% |
Firm | 40% | -10% | 75% - (-25%) = 100% | 25% - 5% = 20% |
\[ \small \underbrace{30\%\times5\%}_{\text{Debt}}+\underbrace{70\%\times38.33\%}_{\text{Equity}}=15\% \]
Back in our previous slides, we achieved the conclusion that the value of the firm remained at \(\small \$1,000\) regardless of the Capital Structure
That was just a direct application of the Law of One Price: the choice of firm’s leverage merely changes the allocation of value between debt and equity - i.e, you’re just slicing the pizza in different ways, but the size of the pizza remains the same!
Modigliani and Miller showed that this result holds more generally under a set of conditions referred to as perfect capital markets:
Investors and firms can trade the same set of securities at competitive market prices equal to the present value of their future cash flows
There are no taxes, transaction costs, or issuance costs associated with security trading
A firm’s financing decisions do not change the cash flows generated by its investments, nor do they reveal new information about them
Proposition I - Modigliani and Miller
In a perfect capital market, the total value of a firm’s securities is equal to the market value of the total cash flows generated by its assets and is not affected by its choice of capital structure.
Why is this important? It establishes that, under certain conditions, the irrelevance of the choice of leverage applies to more general cases
As we’ll see in the upcoming slides, this idea applies to a case where a given investor might desire a different capital structure choice than the one chosen by the firms
Regardless of the case (either a more or less leverage preference), the value of the firm for this investor is the same!
In other words, because different choices of capital structure offer no benefit to investors, they do not affect the value of the firm
Let’s say the firm selects a given capital structure, but the investor likes an alternative capital structure (either more or less leveraged)
Modigliani and Miller demonstrated that if investors prefer an alternative capital structure to the one the firm has chosen, they can borrow or lend on their own personal account and achieve the same result in terms of firm value!
To illustrate that, assume the firm is an all−equity firm (zero leverage)…
Source | \(T_0\) | \(T_1\) (strong) | \(T_0\) (weak) |
---|---|---|---|
Unlevered Equity (Firm) | 1,000 | 1,400 | 900 |
Margin loan (Investor borrowing) | -500 | -525 | -525 |
Levered equity (Investor’s return) | 500 | 875 | 375 |
If the cash flows of the unlevered equity serve as collateral for the margin loan (at the risk−free rate of 5%), then by using homemade leverage, the investor has replicated the payoffs to the levered equity!
As long as investors can borrow or lend at the same interest rate as the firm, homemade leverage is a perfect substitute for the use of leverage by the firm
What if investors actually want a less leveraged firm? Is it possible for them to unlever on their own?
Now, assume the firm uses debt, but investors prefer to hold unlevered equity (\(\small100\%\) equity):
Source | \(T_0\) | \(T_1\) (strong) | \(T_0\) (weak) |
---|---|---|---|
Debt (Investor’s lending) | 500 | 525 | 525 |
Levered equity (Firm) | 500 | 875 | 375 |
Unlevered equity (Investor’s return) | 1,000 | 1,400 | 900 |
Modigliani and Miller showed that a firm’s financing choice does not affect its value. But how can we reconcile this conclusion with the fact that the cost of capital differs for different securities?
All in all, isn’t debt a cheaper and better source of capital than equity? Although debt does have a lower cost of capital than equity, we cannot consider this cost in isolation:
Proposition II - Modigliani and Miller
The cost of capital of levered equity increases with the firm’s market value debt equity ratio:
\[ \begin{align} &r_E=r_U+\dfrac{D}{E}(r_U-r_D), \text{where:} \\ &\\ &\text{ - E = Market value of equity in a levered firm}\\ &\text{ - D = Market value of debt in a levered firm}\\ &\text{ - U = Market value of equity in an unlevered firm}\\ &\text{ - A = Market value of the firm's assets}\\ \end{align} \]
Proposition I stated that: \(\small E+D = U = A\). In words, the total market value of the firm’s securities is equal to the market value of its assets, whether the firm is unlevered or levered
Furthermore, remember that the return of a portfolio is the weighted average of the returns
So, we can write that the return on unlevered equity (\(r_U\)) is related to the returns of levered equity (\(r_E\)) and debt (\(r_D\)):
\[ \small r_U = \frac{E}{E+D} \times r_E + \frac{D}{E+D} \times r_D \]
\[ \small r_E = r_U + \frac{D}{E} \times (r_U - r_D) \]
\[ \small r_E = \underbrace{r_U}_{\text{Risk without leverage}} + \underbrace{\frac{D}{E} \times (r_U - r_D)}_{\text{Add. risk due to leverage}} \]
\[ \small r_E = r_U + \frac{D}{E} \times (r_U - r_D)\rightarrow 15\%+1\times(15\%-5\%)=25\% \]
\[ \small r_E = r_U + \frac{D}{E} \times (r_U - r_D) = 15\% + \frac{700}{300} \times (15\%-5\%) = 38.33\% \]
\[ \small r_{WACC} = \frac{E}{E+D} \times r_E + \frac{D}{E+D} \times r_D \rightarrow 30\% \times 38.33\% + 70\% \times 5\% = 15\% \]
\(\rightarrow\) With perfect capital markets, a firm’s WACC is independent of its capital structure and is equal to its equity cost of capital if it is unlevered
Honeywell (ticker: HON) has a market debt−equity ratio of \(\small0.5\). Assume its current debt cost of capital is \(\small6.5\%\), and its equity cost of capital is \(\small 14\%\). If HON issues equity and uses the proceeds to repay its debt and reduce its debt−equity ratio to \(0.4\), it will lower its debt cost of capital to \(\small 5.75\%\).
With perfect capital markets, what effect will this transaction have on HON’s equity cost of capital and WACC?
\[ \small r_{WACC} = \frac{E}{E+D} \times r_E + \frac{D}{E+D} \times r_D \rightarrow \frac{2}{2+1} \times 14\% + \frac{1}{2+1} \times 6.5\% = 11.5\% \]
\[ \small r_E = r_U + \frac{D}{E} (r_U - r_D) \rightarrow 11.5\% +0.4 \times (11.5\% - 5.75\%) = 13.8\% \]
\[ \small r_{WACC} = \frac{1}{1+0.4} \times 13.8\% + \frac{0.4}{1+0.4} \times 5.75\% = 11.5\% \]
\[ \small \beta_U = \frac{E}{D+E} \times \beta_E + \frac{D}{D+E} \times \beta_D \]
\[ \small \beta_E = \beta_U + \frac{D}{E} (\beta_U - \beta_D) \]
\(\rightarrow\) Therefore, the unlevered beta is a measure of the risk of a firm as if it did not have leverage, which is equivalent to the beta of the firm’s assets!
In August 2018, Reenor had a market capitalization of 140 billion. It had debt of 25.4 billion as well as cash and short−term investments of 60.4 billion. Its equity beta was 1.09 and its debt beta was approximately zero. What was Reenor’s enterprise value at time? Given a risk−free rate of 2% and a market risk premium of 5%, estimate the unlevered cost of capital of Reenor’s business.
\[ \small \beta_U = \frac{E}{E+D} \times \beta_E + \frac{D}{E+D} \times \beta_D = \frac{140}{105} \times 1.09 + \frac{-35}{105} \times 0 = 1.45 \]
\[ \small r_U = 2\% + 1.45 \times 5\% = 9.25\% \]
We will discuss now two fallacies concerning capital structure:
\(\rightarrow\) As we’ll see, using Modigliani and Miller’s proposition under perfect capital markets, we can conclude that both claims are incorrect - in other words, these actions do not change the value of a firm
Assume that LVI’s EBIT is not expected to grow in the future and that all earnings are paid as dividends. Is the increase in expected EPS lead to an increase in the share price?
Without leverage, expected earnings per share and therefore dividends are \(\small\$1\) each year, and the share price is \(\small\$7.50\)
Let \(r_U\) be LVI’s cost of capital without leverage. The value LVI as a perpetuity is simply:
\[ \small P = 7.50 = \frac{Div}{r_U} = \frac{EPS}{r_U} = \frac{1}{r_U} \]
\(\rightarrow\) Therefore, current stock price implies that \(\small r_U = \frac{1}{7.50} = 13.33\%\)
\[ \small r_E= r_U +\frac{D}{E} \times (r_U - r_D) = 13.33\% + 0.25 \times (13.33\% - 8\%) = 14.66 \]
\[ \small EPS=\dfrac{Earnings}{Share}=\dfrac{\overbrace{10,000,000}^{\text{EBIT}}-\overbrace{8\%\times15,000,000}^{\text{Interest}}}{8,000,000}=\dfrac{8,800,000}{8,000,000}=1.1 \]
\[ \small P=\frac{1.10}{14.66\%} = 7.50 \]
\(\rightarrow\) Thus, even though EPS is higher, due to the additional risk, shareholders will demand a higher return. These effects cancel out, so the price per share is unchanged
As Earnings-per-Share (EPS), Price-Earnings (P/E) and even ROE ratios are affected by leverage, we cannot reliably compare these measures across firms with different capital structures!
Therefore, most analysts prefer to use performance measures and valuation multiples that are based on the firm’s earnings before interest has been deducted
For example, the ratio of enterprise value to EBIT (or EBITDA) is more useful when analyzing firms with very different capital structures than is comparing their P/E ratios
It is sometimes (incorrectly) argued that issuing equity will dilute existing shareholders’ ownership value, so debt financing should be used instead
To see that, suppose Jet Sky Airlines (JSA) currently has no debt and \(\small 500\) million shares of stock outstanding, which is currently trading at a price of \(\small \$16\). Last month, the firm announced that it would expand and the expansion will require the purchase of \(\small \$1\) billion of new planes, which will be financed by issuing new equity:
Assets | Before | After |
---|---|---|
Cash | - | $1,000 |
Existing Assets | $8,000 | $8,000 |
Total Value | $8,000 | $9,000 |
# Shares (out) | 500 | 562.5 |
Value per share | $16 | $16 |
\(\rightarrow\) As a consequence, share prices don’t change. Any gain or loss associated with the transaction will result from the NPV of the investments the firm makes with the funds raised
Modigliani and Miller is truly about the conservation of the value principle in perfect financial markets: with perfect capital markets, financial transactions neither add nor destroy value, but instead represent just a repackaging of risk and therefore return
As a result, what really matters for the firm value is to find good investment opportunities that increase the future cash-flows!
Practitioners often question why Modigliani and Miller’s results are important if, after all, capital markets are not perfect in the real world
You may well think…but we are not in a perfect capital market, so why should I bother? That goes hand in hand with the Modigliani and Miller findings:
Knowing how these imperfections affect the firm value is important for business and policy considerations
Important
Practice using the following links:
\[ \small \beta_U = \frac{E}{E+D}\times \beta_E + \frac{D}{E+D} \times \beta_D \]
\[ \small \begin{align} &\beta_U = \frac{(E\times \beta_E +D\times \beta_D)}{E+D}\\ &\rightarrow E\times \beta_E =(E+D)\times\beta_U - D\times \beta_D\\ &\rightarrow\beta_E =\dfrac{(E+D)\times\beta_U - D\times \beta_D}{E}=\beta_U+\dfrac{D}{E}\times \beta_U-\dfrac{D}{E}\times \beta_D\\ &\rightarrow \beta_E= \beta_U+\dfrac{D}{E}\times(\beta_U-\beta_D) \end{align} \]
\[ \small r_U = \frac{E}{E+D}\times r_E + \frac{D}{E+D} \times r_D \]
\[ r_E= r_U+\dfrac{D}{E}\times(r_U-r_D) \]